At certain times, as we understand that Brazil is far from the centers of political and economic decision-making in the world, we have the impression that outsiders do not know our reality and our problems so well. Well, research published in recent days has shown that the world is watching us and aware of our greatest potentials and weaknesses.
The research in question is Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index (AEMLI) – 2016, jointly published by the companies transport intelligence e Agility. The index, already established as a reference in the sector, is in its seventh year and, in the most recent edition, gathered the experience and expectations of 1.118 executives from all over the world linked to the logistics and supply chain sector.
The main result of the study is a ranking that ranks the most promising logistics markets among the top 45 emerging countries. The index uses three indicators to make the assessment: Size and Growth (makes up 50% of the global score), Compatibility (makes up 25% of the global score) and Connectivity (makes up 25% of the global score). Brazil dropped 3 positions in the overall ranking, now occupying sixth position (Figure 1). China remains the leader in the ranking, followed now by the United Arab Emirates, which rose 4 positions thanks to its excellent logistics infrastructure and highly business-friendly legislation.
Figure 1 – Overall ranking of the most promising emerging countries
Source: Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index – 2016
Despite the low growth rate projected for the next year, the size of the population and its economic production ensured a good classification for Brazil in the Size and Growth item (4th position), which has the highest weight in the evaluation. If the other items had a greater weighting, we would occupy a much more modest position, since Brazil ranks 12th in the Compatibility item (takes into account factors such as market accessibility, business regulation, market risk and security threats) and only 23rd place in the Connectivity category (evaluates the country's national and international transport infrastructure and how well the modes are connected).
A curious factor in relation to Brazil drew attention in the study. Survey respondents were asked to rank the five emerging markets they felt were most likely to become top logistics markets over the next five years. Brazil occupied third place, behind only India and China (Figure 2).
Figure 2 – Countries with the greatest growth potential
Source: Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index – 2016
However, when the executives were asked the opposite, that is, the five emerging countries with the least attractive logistics market, Brazil appeared in the top 20, occupying the 17th position, rising an incredible 11 places compared to the 2015 ranking (Figure 3).
Figure 3 – Countries with lower growth potential
Source: Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index – 2016
These results show that the moment of uncertainty experienced in the country is being reflected around the world and that, despite the country's enormous growth potential, more and more executives are failing to believe in the country in the short term, as many things need to be changed and little has been done lately.
Logistics executives were also asked what, in their opinion, was the main obstacle preventing Brazil from returning to growth. With about a third of the votes, the country's poor governance was identified as the main barrier, followed by corruption and high public debt (Figure 4). The three factors added together correspond to 73,1% of the responses, revealing that executives in the rest of the world do not believe in the current Brazilian government, corroborating several news that we have read daily in the newspapers.
Figure 4 – Obstacles to the return of Brazilian growth
Source: Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index – 2016
The Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index is a very interesting study that offers comprehensive views of the logistics market in the main emerging countries (Video 1). If, on the one hand, the 2016 index revealed bad expectations about Brazil, it also served to show that all is not lost and that the country still enjoys credibility among experts from the rest of the world. Reforms and changes are needed, of course. However, when finally carried out, they promise to lead Brazil to the desired growth.
Video 1 – Summary of the main results of AEMLI 2016
Source: Agility
References
<http://www.agility.com/EN/about-us/Pages/Agility-Emerging-Markets-Logistics-Index-2016.aspx>
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EAImYNekzk>
Fernanda Monteiro
More than 11 years of experience in training and consultancy projects, focusing on Logistics and Supply Chain. In consultancy, he carried out projects such as Transformational Logistics Plan, Diagnosis of logistics operations, Strategy and Calendarization of Transport Operations, Measuring the Cost of Serving, Market Study, Mapping of Inventory Reduction Opportunities, Review of the S&OP Process, Management Plan Training and Implementation of Commercial Processes in companies such as Nestlé, Raia Drogasil, Ipiranga, Lojas Americanas, B2W, Coca-Cola, Andina, Embraco, Martins Atacado, Loja do Mecânico, Santo Antônio Energia, Ecoporto and Silimed. She is currently one of the teachers of the Inventory Management Course taught every six months by ILOS. She worked on the development and management of Online Courses in Logistics and Supply Chain, Supply Processes, Demand Planning, Inventory Management and Industrial Management. Still in the training area, she was responsible for applying ILOS business games in companies such as Raia Drogasil, Fibria, NEC, Novartis and Moove.
