On January 20th, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States. Among the political changes projected for his mandate, many of them will have a direct impact on global logistics, especially with regard to the regulation of imports and incentives for the energy matrix.
Figure 1 – Container ship – symbol of global trade, which is expected to undergo severe changes during Trump’s term
Source: Disclosure
The president-elect has already hinted in his speech that he will adopt protectionist measures to stimulate the North American economy to develop, generating jobs and income internally. For this, Trump should create tariff barriers for imports in order to discourage the existence of industrial plants in countries with low labor costs, measures that should reduce one of the largest flows of maritime transport in the world, the flow from Asia to the USA. China and Southeast Asia will hardly cease to be a world industrial center in the same way that the US will not cease to be one of the largest markets in the world, but this change in flow directly influences shipowners, companies operating cargo vessels. A drop in the revenue of these companies and an eventual increase in the price of maritime cargo transport can be expected from the Trump administration.
Another impactful measure already advanced by the president-elect's speeches is the stimulus to non-renewable energy, since the US has abundant reserves of oil, gas and coal in its territory. This probable increase in the production of fossil fuels tends to negatively influence prices in the international market, aggravating the economic situation in regions that predominantly export these energy sources, such as the Middle East and Venezuela. Despite stimulating the local economy, these measures go against the policy of the main world powers, which have committed to the gradual reduction of energy from non-renewable sources in meetings and climate forums. At this point, the US tends to move in the opposite direction from the rest of the world, yet another sign of uncertainty for the future Trump administration.
For these and other reasons, we will all be closely following the beginning of the term of the future North American president.
References:
<http://www.scdigest.com/ontarget/16-12-12-1.php?cid=11656>
