2015 was not one of the best years for the transport sector in the country: the poor performance of the economy, high inflation, higher taxes and interest rates affected the sector's performance. According to CNT (National Transport Confederation), as it is a secondary activity – one that is not inherent to the company's objective, appearing as a necessary service, but which is unrelated to its main activity – transport suffers even more from the impacts of an economic crisis. The slowdown in the pace of business ends up promoting a significant reduction in demand, negatively affecting the billing of companies providing this service.
At the beginning of 2015, the government predicted an increase of R$0,15 in the price of diesel; at the beginning of October, however, the change was higher than expected: R$0,19, 7,4% higher than the previous price. The explanation comes from the increase in the tax burden: the government opted to raise the rates of PIS/COFINS (Program for Social Integration/Contribution for Financing Social Security) and CIDE (Contributions for Intervention in the Economic Domain), which apply to diesel and Gasoline; road transport is therefore in a delicate situation, with a drop in demand and an increase in costs.
The greatest difficulty falls on companies that move products with lower added value. Products with high added value usually include clauses in their contracts that provide for readjustments in the event of an increase in the price of diesel. However, in the case of low value-added products, the freight price varies according to the balance between supply and demand in the market, which puts pressure on companies to find mechanisms to balance their costs and revenues.
One of the most famous year-end songs, which gives name to this post, sings the hope of better days: “goodbye old year / happy new year”. Unfortunately, for the transport sector, the verses do not seem to find support in the projections for 2016. According to the Consumer Economic Expectations Survey – 2015, carried out by the CNT, the predominant feeling among businessmen in the sector for 2016 is pessimism, combined with lack of prospects for improvement in the short term. For almost half of respondents, 49%, the country will only grow again in 2017, and for another 19,6% the expectation is even worse, predicting a resumption of growth only in 2018. This is the worst percentage ever recorded by the survey, which began to be made in 2012!!! For the 2015 survey, representatives of all modes of transport were interviewed, between August 26th and September 17th, throughout the national territory. Some data stand out:
- 49,9% of respondents believe that the country's GDP will be even lower in 2016;
- 69,9% believe that their gross revenues will be the same or lower compared to 2015;
- 29,3% believe they will reduce formal employee hiring this year;
- 80,9% think there will be an increase in the price of diesel, which in 2015 was already higher than expected;
- 67%, 70,4%, 66,4% and 56,3% believe that there will be an increase, respectively, in inflation, in the tax burden, in the interest rate and in the exchange rate.
Figure 1 - Carriers' expectations for 2016
Source: Adapted from CNT
Brazil faces a difficult period, where the forecasts do not allow to expect better days in the short term and generate distrust in relation to the future. It is hoped that, with the measures announced by the government to resume the economy and stimulate the market, the verses of the aforementioned song that say “that everything will come true/in the year that will be born” can also be sung.
References
<http://cargapesada.com.br/revista/2015/02/09/a-crise-no-transporte-rodoviario-de-carga/>
<http://www.jobcenter.com.br/livro-recomendado/5-02-atividade-fim-e-atividade-meio-definicao/>
