The domestic market for high-end industrial and logistics warehouses, currently oversupplied, will regain balance in 2017, when the vacancy rate will begin to decline, according to the assessment of consultancy Engebanc Real Estate.
“In the second half of 2017, the vacancy rate will begin to drop, which will be confirmed in the following year and, in 2019, the environment will be healthy, with a vacancy rate of 12% to 15%”, says the senior services manager industrial and logistical consultancy, Abiner Oliveira.
The senior manager of research and market intelligence at Engebanc, Leandro Angelino, points out that the warehouse market will be “overheated in 2019 and 2020”, in a period of recovery compared to the current scenario of “oversupply”.
Currently, the relationship between supply and demand makes the scales weigh in favor of tenants in lease negotiations. Most of the demand for new areas is related to the search for more efficient warehouses, but there are still customers looking to expand the areas to be occupied, as is the case of ecommerce companies.
At the end of the third quarter, the availability rate of class A industrial and logistics warehouses was 18,1%, according to Engebanc, a stable level in relation to the previous period. The schedule of part of the stock initially foreseen to enter the market in the coming years has been postponed or revised by the companies that develop the projects. According to the consultancy, this movement tends to gain strength.
The net absorption of warehouses will reach the level of 900 thousand square meters to 1 million square meters this year, compared to 1,1 million square meters in 2014, according to estimates by Engebanc. In practice, the warehouse market continues to grow, but at a slower pace than in previous years. In the third quarter, there was a net absorption of 244 thousand square meters and, in the accumulated of 2015, 704,2 thousand square meters.
In the period from July to September, the average national weighted price increased by 2%, due to the values of new stock, but there was no increase in prices in warehouse projects with recurring vacancy.
In the State of São Paulo, the net take-up of warehouses totaled 180 thousand square meters in the third quarter and 508,6 thousand square meters in the accumulated nine months. The vacancy rate is 21,3% and the average price is R$20,5 per square meter.
Source: Valor Econômico
By: Chiara Quintão
