The new edition of the Logistics Investment Program (PIL) promised by President Dilma Rousseff in her inauguration speech should be the result of a profound review of the lines of concessions already in progress. It is quite likely that credit for projects will become more expensive, assesses an interlocutor of the president. Without this, it is possible for projects to become stranded on the shelf. “Market conditions have changed and we are in a different reality”, she says.
Charged with coordinating federal investment programs, the new Minister of Planning, Nelson Barbosa, indicated that there will be changes, but these will be limited. And he promised to increase the projects' attractiveness to private capital. On the other hand, he stated that the lack of infrastructure in the country "is not a justification for making investments at any price". Reconciling the cost of the projects and the rush to start the projects, he said, will be the government's biggest challenge.
This dilemma appears, for example, in billionaire railroad projects. They will hardly have the entire volume of resources necessary for their implementation from the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES). It will be necessary to resort to private banks. These, however, had already warned that they could not maintain the conditions promised by the government in the first edition of the PIL: long-term interest rate (TJLP) plus 1,5%. The fixed remuneration would need to be higher.
And the lack of credit is just one of the railroads' problems. Another is the apparent lack of interest in the projects. The Brazilian construction companies, which won the highway concessions, had already announced that they would not participate in the auction for the first rail section, connecting Campinorte (GO) to Lucas do Rio Verde (MT), even before the Lava Jato operation. They disagree with the investment estimate set by the Federal Court of Auditors (TCU), considered insufficient.
Chinese
The government says that the way out will be to look for international investors. They point to the Chinese as the strongest candidates. But, internally, there is a recognition that this alternative may never materialize, as has happened with other investment promises from the East. That is why there are those who defend a total redesign of the program, offering higher rates of return, as a way of attracting investors. And, after that, a new roadshow to sell the projects to foreigners.
Likewise, new highway concessions will need to offer better earnings prospects to attract investors. This discussion cannot take too long, since the concession for the Rio-Niterói bridge expires in May.
Other road stretches for concession are in studies that will be finalized this year. Likewise, there are new railways being analyzed – such as, for example, a 1.200 km connection between Lucas do Rio Verde (MT) and the naval port in Itaituba (PA).
ports and airports
In the case of ports, the problem is of a different order. There are many interested investors. But an important part of PIL Portos, the leasing of areas in public ports whose contracts have already expired or are about to expire, has been stopped at the TCU for over a year.
The process is also subject to judicialization. The companies that are already installed in the ports have filed lawsuits to continue with their areas. The perspective of lengthy discussions increases the assessment that it will be necessary to redesign the program. There is also the intention to grant other airports, such as Recife, Salvador and Porto Alegre. This, however, still needs to be studied.
Source: State of S. Paulo
