Two years after it was announced by President Dilma Rousseff, the Logistics Investment Program (PIL) is absolutely far from the reality it promised to deliver. When the concessions package was launched in 2012, the government predicted the injection of BRL 79,5 billion into the economy within five years, from a first round of concessions for roads and railways.
A survey carried out by the State with all the winning concessionaires in the auctions included in the PIL points out that, this year, the economic impulse generated by the concessions will be just over R$ 2 billion, which means only 2,5% of the forecast for the five years .
The timid progress is more evident when confronted with the total investment planned for the transport sector this year, encompassing disbursements by state companies such as Valec and the National Department of Transport Infrastructure (Dnit), in addition to the private sector.
Official government data compiled by the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) point to R$ 33 billion. In this account, the concessions will have a marginal effect, of only 6% in 2014.
Economic frustration is not due to noncompliance with financial commitments by companies. This result is actually associated with two factors: firstly, the delay of one year in starting the program, which had to go through constant changes, from the revision of the rates of return to the financing conditions, and the deadline of concessions. In addition, there was a lack of ability to unlock port concessions and, mainly, railways, the largest share of PIL's investment.
The practical result is that, except for the concession of six road lots and two airports, Confins (MG) and Galeão (RJ), the PIL is practically stopped. The distrust of the private sector left the concession of 11 km of railways on hold, with expected investments of R$ 56 billion over five years. The port auctions, which were supposed to “defavel” the terminals and move R$ 54 billion, collided with a wild discussion at the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU).
The evolution was due to the highways, where concessionaires seek to accelerate the execution of works, but this effort will not be enough to move the economy this year. The same goes for Galeão and Confins airports, which will only be handed over to new operators this Monday.
Impasse. In ports, the process of leasing public areas arrived at the TCU more than a year ago and, until now, it has not left. "Don't come and charge the government", said the Minister of Ports, César Borges.
The promised railway connection between Lucas do Rio Verde (MT) and Campinorte (GO) is yet another example of the difficulties encountered by the government, which faces a kind of rebellion by the national private sector in relation to the 901 kilometers of this, which is the only network ready to go to auction.
The notice has already been completed and approved by the TCU. But Brazilian companies have already warned that they will not participate. They estimate that the railroad would cost R$ 7 billion, but calculations by the National Land Transport Agency (ANTT) point to R$ 6,3 billion. The TCU, however, redid the accounts and fixed the estimate at R$ 5,3 billion.
The government counts on the interest of foreign investors, such as Chinese, Russians and Spaniards, to build the line. But it will only put the project on the market if it is sure of success.
The stalemate surrounding the undertaking does not indicate a lack of interest in railroads in Brazil. On the contrary. Last month, the Ministry of Transport started an Expression of Interest Process (PMI), for studies of new networks in the country. There were no fewer than 81 proposals from 19 companies. On Friday, the list of companies approved to carry out studies of five stretches of railroads was released.
On the list of interested contractors are contractors such as Andrade Gutierrez, Queiroz Galvão, Barbosa Mello and CR Almeida. As the studies will be prepared in the next six months, a period set by the government, the auctions – in an optimistic forecast – will be held for the 2nd half of 2015.
Source: The State of S. Paulo
