The occupation of areas in logistics and industrial condominiums in Brazil registered a lot of idleness in 2016. According to a report released by Buildings[I], the Brazilian market had 25% vacancy, which is the total vacant area over the total leasable area in the country. This idleness increased in relation to previous periods for two reasons: launches of new projects that increased the total inventory of available area and devolution of previously leased spaces.
Movements to return leased areas are frequent in companies in periods of economic recession, as they end up reducing unnecessary storage spaces for the company's activity level.
On the side of real estate investors, however, the decision regarding the investment in a new enterprise is a bet for the future, since the construction involves time for planning and work, in addition to quantifying the price of land, properties and costs of construction. For investors, periods of low economic activity are often very attractive.
But the decision of where to invest is not simple, and cannot be based only on the country's average vacancy. It is necessary to understand the location of the developments, because if some regions are idle, others may be in need of new areas. In addition, the rental price is a strong influencing factor, as the amounts to be charged per square meter vary greatly in the country (from R$ 5 to R$ 45 per m2 a month).
The following figure graphically shows the states best supplied and least supplied with industrial condominiums, as well as the maximum price charged per square meter per month.
Source: Buildings 2016 – Regions of Brazil; ILOS analyzes
Importantly, even within a single state, some microlocations can be very different from others. As an example of this difference, data from Buildings show that the vacancy rate of condominiums located in Dutra (SP) is 34%, while in Regis Bittencourt (SP) it is 14%.
The expectations for 2017 for the leasing of spaces in logistics condominiums follow the economic expectations of the country. Some entrepreneurs from warehouse management companies told Valor Econômico newspaper that the market in the first quarter of 2017 already shows some signs of recovery. It seems that 2017 will be a turning point for the curve, which should stop getting worse, go a little sideways or even try to grow.
Maria Fernanda Hijjar
https://ilos.com.brExecutive Partner of ILOS, holds a master's degree and a degree in Production Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). With more than 10 years of experience in the field of Logistics and Supply Chain, working on several projects, management and participation in research associated with the subject. She has more than 20 articles in newspapers, magazines, periodicals and congress annals, being co-author of several titles in the COPPEAD Collection by Atlas publishing house and in the Panorama Logístico Collection ILOS and CEL / COPPEAD.
