Infrastructure works may represent investments of BRL 69,4 billion.
In 2015, only 2 auctions of the R$ 198,4 billion package were held.
Announced in June last year, the package of new concessions with forecast investments of R$ 198,4 billion has barely left the drawing board. Of the more than 30 projects in the new phase of the so-called Logistics Investment Program (PIL), only two were put up for auction.
Of the new concessions announced, the only one made feasible in 2015 was the lease of 3 areas in the Port of Santos, with forecast investments of R$ 600 million.
Other than that, the only auction in the area of infrastructure and logistics held last year was the rebidding of the Rio-Niterói Bridge, which took place in March, before the announcement of the package, with an investment forecast of R$ 810 million over the next 5 years.
Although there is still no confirmed auction date for 2016, the Ministry of Planning informed the G1 that it works with the forecast of auctioning in the year 8 stretches of highways, 4 stretches of railways, 4 airports, in addition to 5 areas in ports. SEE LIST AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
The 21 concessions will provide, according to the government, investments of R$ 69,4 billion over the concession period, with most of the resources in works for the expansion and modernization of highways and railways.
Airports
The auction package scheduled for 2016 includes the concessions for Salgado Filho airports, in Porto Alegre (RS); Deputy Luís Eduardo Magalhães, in Salvador (BA); Hercílio Luz, in Florianópolis (SC); and Pinto Martins, in Fortaleza, with forecast investments of R$ 6,92 billion.
The novelty is that in these auctions Infraero should no longer have a shareholding. The estimate is that the privatization of the 4 airports will yield around R$ 3 billion for the government's cash as grant bonuses.
Railways
The portion of the package that raises the most doubts is the one involving railroads, which has not yet had the new concession model tested in auctions. The area has been announced as a priority since 2014, but has still been the subject of questions from both investors and the Federal Audit Court (TCU).
highways and ports
Highway auctions have been the most frequent in the logistics area. Since the announcement of the first phase of the PIL, in August 2012, 7 have already been carried out. The last one was the renewal of the Rio-Niterói Bridge concession, purchased by Ecorodovias, in March 2015.
According to the current model, the concession is awarded to the company that offers the lowest toll rate, without payment of grant bonuses to the government. The government has not yet confirmed, however, whether the model will be maintained in the 8 stretches planned for the year.
Potential impact of BRL 212 billion on GDP
Despite the government's difficulties in getting the concessions off the ground, the auctions are seen as fundamental for the country to manage both to improve its infrastructure and to raise the investment rate and exit the recession.
A study by GO Associados shows that the R$ 69,4 billion in investments in the 21 concessions that the government intends to carry out in 2016 has the potential to inject R$ 212 billion into the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), considering the multiplier effect of the investment throughout the economy chain. That is, an amount up to 3 times greater.
The consultancy estimates that over 3 years, the investments foreseen in these concessions could increase the payroll by R$ 36 billion and tax collection by R$ 13,9 billion, in addition to the creation of more than 4 million direct jobs and indirect.
“Infrastructure investment has a particularly important impact because it moves a series of highly labor-intensive segments that have a strong linkage and income generation effect”, says Gesner Oliveira, economist and partner at GO Associados.
Despite the less favorable financing conditions and the disruption caused by the Lava Jato operation in the infrastructure sector, the economist's assessment is that there is market interest in this list of concessions.
“Even in the difficult situation that Brazil is in, there is repressed demand for these concessions. The issue is to give an unequivocal signal of priority and stability of rules, in order to attract investors”, evaluates Oliveira. “The opportunities are very good. There is no other frontier in the world for infrastructure expansion as good as that of Brazil, which has a huge repressed demand”, completes the economist, noting that the devaluation of the real made Brazil cheap for foreign investors.
According to him, Petrobras' decision to reduce investments planned by 32 by US$ 2019 billion makes the PIL even more essential for the resumption of growth in the investment rate in the country.
“The trend is for another year of recession in 2016. I would not be so optimistic about a quick recovery, but it is possible to reverse this trend, starting in 2017, and turn the game around by investing in infrastructure”, says Gesner Oliveira.
AUCTIONS PLANNED FOR 2016:
HIGHWAYS
Investments planned during the concession: BRL 30,6 billion
– BR-476/153/282/480/PR/SC – BRL 4,1 billion
– BR-364/365/GO/MG – BRL 2,8 billion
– BR-364/060/MT/GO – BRL 5,5 billion
– BR-163/MT/PA – BRL 6,6 billion
– BR-101/SC – BRL 1,1 billion
– BR-101/232/PE – BRL 4,2 billion
– BR-101/493/465/RJ/SP – BRL 3,1 billion
– BR-101/116/290/386/RS – BRL 3,2 billion
RAILWAYS
Investments planned during the concession: BRL 30,4 billion
– Anápolis/GO-Estrela D'Oeste/SP-Três Lagoas/MS (North-South): R$ 4,9 billion
– Palmas/TO-Anápolis/GO and Barcarena/MA-Açailândia/PA (North-South): BRL 7,8 billion
– Lucas do Rio Verde/MT-Miritituba/PA: BRL 9,9 billion
– Rio de Janeiro/RJ-Vitória/ES: BRL 7,8 billion
AIRPORTS
Investments planned during the concession: BRL 6,92 billion
– Salvador – Investments: BRL 2,85 billion
– Fortaleza – Investments: BRL 1,73 billion
– Porto Alegre – Investments: BRL 1,35 billion
– Florianópolis – Investments: BRL 0,99 billion
PORTS
Investments planned during the concession: BRL 1,491 billion
– Vila do Conde (PA) – BRL 501,1 million
– Outeiros 1 (PA) – BRL 218,2 million
– Outeiros 2 (PA) – BRL 218,2 million
– Outeiros 3 (PA) – BRL 218,2 million
– Santarém (PA) – BRL 336 million
Source: G1
By: Darlan Alvarenga
