ILOS uses Advanced Analytics to project 30-year demand for large urban transport company
ILOS carried out a project of Advanced analytics for an urban passenger transport company in a large capital city in Brazil.
In addition to needing to define a long-term forecast of demand for public transport to support investment decisions, the company needed to deal with the uncertainties of the post-pandemic period regarding the recovery process, return to offices and demand for urban transport.
To this end, the ILOS team of experts trained and tested 9 different statistical forecasting models, delivering tools that would allow the incorporation of exogenous variables such as public safety, health and socioeconomic data.
Furthermore, a review of the planning process was proposed, adapting the strategic, tactical and operational visions for the relevant forums and decisions.
With the delivery of the tool and restructuring of processes, it was possible to improve the accuracy of forecasting models and improve planning processes, allowing for greater speed and efficiency in decision making.
With a team specialized in consulting and projects using Advanced analytics, ILOS can help companies improve planning accuracy, reducing costs and increasing service levels.
project type
- Demand Planning and S&OP
Segment
- logistic services
ILOS projects 30-year demand for urban transportation company
Challenge
An urban transport company in a large Brazilian capital needed to forecast long-term demand to define strategic investments, but it faced difficulties in making such estimates in the post-pandemic period.
ILOS solution
ILOS redesigned the demand planning process and developed an algorithm for short- and long-term demand projection, with daily and seasonal granularity.
Results
- ILOS calculated MAPE 47% lower than the previously used model
- ILOS delivered tools for evaluation and selection of suitable forecast models
