Which is stronger: the truckers' strike or the law of supply/demand?

Without discussing the merits of the question whether the truck drivers' strike is fair or not, the current moment is perhaps not the most appropriate for truck drivers/transporters to achieve 100% of what they want. One of the main claims is the increase in freight. But is now the best time to rightly claim a price increase?

The main power of the truck drivers' strike is to reduce supply. But, currently, demand is so low that only if adherence to the strike is very high will the desired effect be achieved. Given this, there is a risk that the stoppage, which began in Mato Grosso and is now advancing to other states in Brazil, will lose momentum and fail to achieve its main objectives. It is clear that the truckers' strike paralyzes and harms some operations, such as, for example, the sale of soy, which is now at the beginning of the harvest, but for many companies, this strike may go unnoticed.

Demand has been falling more than supply over the past two years. ILOS estimates point out that, for the box truck, the demand in 2016 fell 5,2%, while the offer, 2,8%. This means that there are a lot of self-employed people and transporters standing in the yard and accepting reductions in the price practiced so far so that they can have some income at the end of the month.

It is also known that the cost of freight suffered with the increase in diesel prices in recent months, and that not all managed to pass on the readjustment to their customers in full. This means, in practice, that margins, generally low in transport, have become even lower.

Furthermore, it is true that contracting freight companies are under pressure to reduce their logistical costs and, as transport represents about 60% of logistical costs, it is the main account that everyone looks at when looking for opportunities to reduce costs.

For now, it is not possible to assess whether or not the truck drivers' strike will achieve its objectives. But, the moment definitely does not seem to be the best to seek a readjustment in prices.