Highway concessionaires reached the end of the year with vehicle movement 2,4% higher than in the previous year. It was the weakest growth since 2009, when flow rose 2,2%.
The movement of heavy vehicles (trucks and buses) weighed in the numbers for 2014, which fell 2,6% against 2013. It is the first drop in this indicator, historically linked to industrial activity, since 2009. The reason is the poor performance of industrial activity during the year.
“We are seeing a drop in the confidence index that has lasted for a long time. In addition, there are unfavorable expectations regarding economic policy and the prospect of growth,” says Rafael Bacciotti, economist at Tendências Consultoria. He recalls that the automotive sector had a bad year, with a drop of approximately 40% in vehicle exports.
The World Cup, with holidays in the middle of the year, also reduced activity. “In June and July, the World Cup reflected in economic activity, with a negative influence on the movement of heavy vehicles. It was not a good year for the industry.”
The roads were only able to maintain growth numbers in the year thanks to the flow of light vehicles, linked to employment and income indicators, which grew by 4,2%. “The flow of light vehicles, influenced by low unemployment rates and good income, kept the index positive”, explains the economist
“The result was a stimulus to the traffic of passenger vehicles and a drop in the movement of trucks, which follows the industrial activity. The weakening of the movement of heavy vehicles has been clear since mid-2013, as a reflection of the moment experienced by the industry and in 2014 this trend was accentuated, resulting in a drop of 2,6% in the year”, highlights Bacciotti.
For 2015, the indicators are not encouraging – although, in general, the economy should behave a little better than in 2014.
“It will still be a complicated year. The industry has been accumulating inventories despite some adjustments,” she says. “We expect a slight growth in production in 2015, explained by the depreciation trend of the exchange rate. Coupled with more weighted wage growth, it will provide room to slow the entry of imports,” he says.
In the comparison of December against November, considering seasonally adjusted data, the flow of light vehicles grew by 3% and that of heavy vehicles fell by 1,4%, resulting in a total increase of 1,4% in the index. Comparing December with the same month a year earlier, the total index grew by 3,2%. The flow of light vehicles increased by 4,5%, while the flow of heavy vehicles dropped by 1,2%. The index is produced by the Brazilian Association of Highway Concessionaires together with Tendências Consultoria Integrada.
Source: Valor Econômico
By Fabio Pupo
