We closed the year 2022 with diesel being sold at gas stations at BRL 6,4/liter, a price 18% higher than in 2021. The North region is the one that sells the most expensive diesel, especially Acre. Fuel currently represents 47% of the cost of a 1000-kilometer trip for a trailer, with the remaining costs distributed among labor, insurance, tires, maintenance, lubrication, vehicle depreciation, among others.
Internationally, although there is a drop in the price of a barrel of oil, the commodity price level remains above the annual averages registered since 2015, and should remain high for 2023.
Truck prices (semi-trailers and tractors) also rose a lot in 2022. Interest rates remain high, with Selic above 13% in December, making financing difficult. The sale of new trucks was lower in 2022 compared to 2021, falling below the expectations of industry associations. For 2023, the arrival of Euro 6, a rule that requires less polluting engines from January, brings relief for the environment, but more cost pressure for fleet renewal, as equipment is more expensive. Currently, the average age of trucks in Brazil is high (14 years), with the oldest vehicles in the hands of self-employed truck drivers (21 years).
But even with the high cost scenario, the demand for road transport in 2022 was a record. Although industrial physical production has been slow in Brazil, the grain harvest in 2022 was 4% higher than in 2021, and, for 2023, the IBGE expects an increase of almost 12% in the production of agricultural bulk. This expectation will bring a large need for transport to 2023, greater than the 2022 record.
The road modal still represents more than 60% of cargo movement in Brazil and will continue to maintain this level until the programs for new infrastructure for alternative modes are really implemented.
Thus, the scenario for 2023 remains complex for logistics managers of companies that use and operate road transport. High demand, still high costs and difficulty in increasing the supply of vehicles will be part of this challenge to come.
It is up to us, logistics professionals, to overcome ourselves in terms of seeking efficiency, eliminating waste, optimizing routes, vehicles, trips, correctly sizing fleets and logistics networks. Efficiency and productivity are always the best ways to face the most challenging scenarios.
Maria Fernanda Hijjar
https://ilos.com.brManaging Partner of ILOS, she holds a master's degree and a bachelor's degree in Production Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). With over 10 years of experience in Logistics and Supply Chain, she has worked on various projects, managing and participating in research related to the topic. She has published more than 20 articles in newspapers, magazines, periodicals and conference proceedings, and is co-author of several titles in the COPPEAD Collection published by Atlas and in the ILOS and CEL/COPPEAD Logistics Panorama Collection.
